The Singapore general election is coming soon. Some rumours say that the next election will be held on 12 September 2015. It could be earlier, in August after National Day or before the year is out.

The PAP ruling party has gerrymandered and changed the Singapore electoral boundaries yet again.

The changes were announced today.

Here is a quick analysis on the changes in the electoral boundaries.

(1) For my Sembawang friends, Sembawang Central – where I live – was moved from Sembawang GRC in 2006 to Nee Soon GRC in 2011 and back to Sembawang GRC again in 2015.

(2) The PAP believes that it will lose the East Coast GRC to the Worker’s Party. It moved Serangoon Island from the East Coast GRC to Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC. Looks like the PAP wants to develop Serangoon Island in the next 5 years and does not want any hindrance.

(3) The PAP also looks like it believes that it will lose Nee Soon GRC to the Worker’s Party. It moved Simpang and Seletar Island to Sembawang GRC, in the hope that it can develop the Woodlands-Sembawang corridor with free rein, which Lee Hsien Loong announced at last year’s National Day Rally.

(4) The PAP also deleted Joo Chiat SMC and Moulmein-Kallang GRC because it knows that it will lose them to the Worker’s Party – the Worker’s Party won more than 40% of the votes in both constituencies at the last election.

(5) For the three other key development areas that the PAP has planned for – Jurong, Tampines and West Coast GRCs – the PAP has consolidated these areas and largely left them intact, which means they will likely field who they consider to be their strong candidates in these areas. Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam currently helms the Jurong GRC.

From this, you can see that how the PAP redraws the electoral boundaries is broadly dependent on three things:

– First, it is dependent on making sure that the constituencies which posed the biggest threat to the PAP at the previous election are deleted – which we already know.

– Second, the PAP already has development plans in mind and have redrawn the boundaries to allow it (it hopes) to hold on to certain constituencies so that it can fully develop these areas according to its wants. In that sense, the PAP has parcelled out Singapore into areas it considers important to keep for its growth-at-all-cost model, and those which it considers less important.

And if you understand what it means when the PAP wants to develop these areas, it means that the PAP wants to build more shopping malls, increase rents, increase prices, increase revenue for themselves and allow themselves to get rich. So, you want to let them?

– Third, you can see that the PAP believes that it will lose about 10% of the votes at the next election, as most of the constituencies with boundary changes are those which the opposition won more than 40% at the last election, and which the PAP believes it will lose.

And if you track the past three elections, for constituencies where their boundaries did not change, the PAP lost an average of 10% in these constituencies at each subsequent election, which means that at the next election, the PAP will indeed lose another 10% of the votes.

The PAP won 60% of the total votes at the last election. So going along these lines, based on the PAP’s prediction, it means that they would likely lose 10% of the votes and only win about 50% of the votes at the next election.

It would most likely be a 50-50 at the next election for the PAP and the opposition. This is a chance for us Singaporeans to set things right!

So, Singaporeans, you want to help the PAP lose and help Singaporeans win?

– So for my friends from the East Coast and Nee Soon GRCs, help to fulfil the PAP’s fears. Let them lost these 2 GRCs.

– And for my friends living in the Sembawang and Pasir Ris-Punggol GRCs, do you want to give the PAP free rein to develop your areas? Do you want to let Teo Chee Hean and Khaw Boon Wan win these areas again? If not, vote them out.

– And for my friends in the Joo Chiat SMC and Moulmein-Kallang GRC, these have been absorbed into the Bishan-Toa Poyah GRC, Jalan Besar GRC and Marine Parade GRC. So, help the opposition win these 3 GRCs as well. Vote Opposition.

In summary, these are the constituencies which you should vote Opposition:

(A) Constituencies which Opposition have already won:
– Aljunied GRC (5 seats)
– Hougang SMC (1 seat)
– Punggol East SMC (1 seat)

(B) Constituencies which Opposition won more than 40% of the votes at the last election:
– Mountbatten SMC (1 seat)
– Potong Pasir SMC (1 seat)
– Sengkang West SMC (1 seat)
– Tampines GRC (5 seats)

(C) Constituencies which Opposition won more than 40% of the votes at the last election, and which the PAP is also trying to “fix”:
– Bishan-Toa Poyah GRC (5 seats)
– East Coast GRC (4 seats)
– Marine Parade GRC (5 seats)
– Nee Soon GRC (5 seats)

(D) New constituencies carved out from constituencies which the Opposition won more than 40% of the votes at the last election, which the PAP carved out in a bid to protect themselves:
– Fengshan SMCs (1 seat)
– Jalan Besar GRC (4 seats)
– MacPherson SMCs (1 seat)

(E) Constituencies which the PAP wants to protect to continue to develop these areas for its own want:
– Sembawang GRC (5 seats)
– Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (6 seats)

Total seats that Opposition should be able to win accordingly: 51 (57% of the seats)

(F) If you want the Opposition to win two-thirds of the seats so that the Opposition can implement policies to protect Singaporeans, then also vote these constituencies where the Opposition won more than 35% of the votes at the last election:
– Choa Chu Kang GRC (4 seats)
– Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (4 seats)
– Marsiling-Yee Tee GRC (4 seats)

(Additionally, if you want Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to take responsibility for the failings in Singapore, then vote PAP out of the Ang Mo Kio GRC, where there are 6 seats.)

This way, the Opposition will win 63 seats (70.1% of the seats) and be able to form a new coalition government which will then be able to implement new policies to finally protect Singaporeans.

– Do you want your wages to increase?
– Do you want the government to increase its health expenditure so that healthcare will become truly affordable to Singaporeans?
– Do you want education to be free to protect your children’s future (instead of the PAP giving $400 million every year to foreign students)
– Do you want the government to provide unemployment benefits for the many Singaporeans who have become unemployed today (because the PAP did not enact policies to protect the jobs of Singaporeans)
– Do you want the government to implement an old-age pension to protect your parents and your own retirement?
– Do you want the government to #ReturnOurCPF?
– Do you want the government to be transparent and accountable to Singaporeans, to let us know what they have been taking our money to use?
– Do you want to stop the PAP’s use of the law to persecute our children unfairly?
– Do you want to stop the PAP from abusing power further?

Then #VoteOpposition #VoteforYourFuture

Vote for a new government to protect your future, and your children’s future. Vote for a new government for Singapore’s future. For our country’s future. For our home.

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