1. Surprise element – many people will be surprised if PAP calls for a snap election before the end of the year giving them the immense advantage of disrupting the plans of many opposition political parties who have foresee an election late next year after our 50th-year celebration.

2. Middle east turmoil – the Middle east crisis has entered into a new high with the beheading of a American journalist this week. All bets will be on for a long protracted war that may develop into a world war three situation with superpowers such as the US, China and Russia coming in. People usually vote for safety in the incumbent during an international crisis and no one will think of change during such terse period.

3. Ebola disease – the Ebola disease is also fast turning into a looming crisis which can reach international proportions. This event again will hand the advantage to PAP when voters tend to turn cautious and vote for the incumbent out of safety if they decide to call for a snap election.

4. Ground shifting steadily – the ground has being shifting steadily against the PAP since the annoucement of the 6.9m population white paper and with new protests held for the recent CPF issue, more ground may be lost if the election is delayed and held late next year.

5. Swift conversion of new citizens – there has been the swift conversion of new citizens recently and each month, as many as a thousand new citizens are converted so that they could vote in a government that provides them with good jobs, new flats and a better future.

6. Waning of Malay voters – the all-important Malay votes have being waning of late as many of them feel the full impact of the foreigner influx competing with jobs from them at the F & B and retail sector. The majority Chinese voters are split evenly between the PAP and the opposition and if the support of Malay voters are gone, PAP may lose heavily in many areas.

7. PAP walk-about – PAP MPs have being doing regular walk-about three months ago and it’s a clear sign that elections may be on the cards soon.

8. Seeking mandate for another 10-year tenure as PM – this year marks the 10th year tenure of our PM and he may call for a snap election to ask the people for another five years as PM. Doing it before the 50th year gala celebration will surely strike a touching chord on the population especially if it is one that is fill with a grandiose plan of massive change and financial return.

9. Waning pioneer generation votes – though there has been the launch of the $9 billion pioneer generation package, our elderly still lives in abject poverty and many could not afford to seek treatment in our refurbished hospitals. Though our elderly has all along supported the PAP, the recent runaway cost of living has hurt many of them so much so that they need to work despite their advanced age in order to survive. Their votes now could be shaky to say the least… many are also fed up that their CPF money is locked away till retirement and they could only withdraw bit by bit after that.

10. LKY factor – he looked frail during the recent national day celebration and there is every chance that he may not make it by next year. LKY alone can bring in 20% of loyal citizen votes especially from the pioneer generation and his demise, if it happens before an election is called, will bring down at least a GRC.

11. Fulfillment of PWP – there is every chance that once PAP wins the next election even if they lose one or two more GRC, more foreigners will be let in further stressing the transport and infrastructure system. Coverting new loyal foreign citizens is their only way of furthering the PAP legacy and it maý actually work – especially when they are given another five more crucial years to bring in more foreigners. After this election, it is foreseeable that new citizen votes will feature heavily in future elections giving a huge advantage back to the PAP.

Gilbert Goh

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